Princeton Study throws cold water on Climate models

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Toolsmith
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Princeton Study throws cold water on Climate models

Princeton, of all places, raises questions about the models being used to predict climate.

Underestimation of the cloud cooling effect is the issue...

http://dailycaller.com/2018/01/11/princeton-study-tosses-cold-water-on-m...

And the original source...

https://environment.princeton.edu/news/spotty-coverage-climate-models-un...

anonymous_coward
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The paper (https://www.nature

The paper (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02369-4) points out an error in the way clouds are radiatively modeled, but really there's no clear impact of this error on the rate of change of radiative forcing with respect to increased greenhouse gasses.

All in all, I think it's good that there are more fine tuning that is linked to physical data.

Toolsmith
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But remember, the northwest

But remember, the northwest passage will be ice free all year!!!

https://news.usni.org/2018/01/19/uss-little-rock-ice-montreal

Or not. ;-)

mainemom
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The error in accounting for

The error in accounting for cloud cover is a significant source of uncertainty:

The researchers "found that not accurately capturing the daily cloud cycle has the sun bombarding Earth with an extra 1-2 watts of energy per square meter. The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the start of the Industrial Age is estimated to produce an extra 3.7 watts of energy per square meter. “The error here is half of that, so in that sense it becomes substantial,” Porporato said."

So, half of the extra energy attributed to CO2 since the start of the Industrial Age is not really there.

This is not a refutation of AGW.
It is, however, an affirmation of scientists who have written about the uncertainties in the predictive models, mostly due to poorly understood science related to clouds.
It casts major doubt on the catastrophic predictions of those who want to believe we're all gonna die.
For me, it tells me I'm wise to oppose trillions of dollars of regulations that will have little to no effect on the planet's temperature, all to appease our collective guilt for being rich.

pmconusa
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All climate models are based

All climate models are based on selected data sources and the effect each variable has on the whole. They are like a variable in a mathematical equation to determine the influence of each variable on the whole. It would be nice if nature would cooperate so all the models could be made linear in order to predict what one variable is in comparison to data taken of another. Unfortunately this is not the case and attempts to develop equations that will tell you what the next iteration of the equation is based on data from today is difficult and futile at best, misleading at worst. The predictions of the Farmers Almanac are no more accurate than tomorrows weather forecast because they are predicated on the same type of modeling except instead of daily data they encompass an entire years worth.

Years ago when I was earning my PhD and teaching at MIT one of the departments did a study of the weather predictability of the forecasts in the Boston Globe. The conclusion was that if they predicted the weather for tomorrow to be the same as today, they would have been correct more often. It is an interesting fact but unheeded by the climatologist wackos because they want you to believe their conclusions first without question so they can sell you the need to make adjustments that will make someone some money. It is a scam, like insurance, identity theft and the government's Ponzi schemes Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare.

Melvin Udall
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So insurance and identity

So insurance and identity theft are scams?

You could make a lot of money selling that premise.

pmconusa
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Yes

Yes

Melvin Udall
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Who'd want to steal your

Who'd want to steal your identity, right?

And you don't need car insurance; you're an expert driver.

When will your new monograph on the subject be out?

pmconusa
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Nobody would want to steal my

Nobody would want to steal my identity because it would not profit them one bit. Knowing who I am will not gain them access to my liquid assets unless I gave them the password to my accounts and then be able to extract funds without me knowing it. My bank even protects me by guaranteeing reimbursement for charges to my account that I did not authorize and even if a thief stole my credit card and knew my password he could only get $300 per day from my account and I could shut this off the minute I knew my card had been stolen.

You may not have noticed it, but it is becoming harder and harder to steal but easier and easier to defraud. The banks and other lenders were the first to be permitted legalized theft when they were allowed to charge interest. Before the government got into the act, if you wanted a bank loan for say $10,000 which in my youth would buy you a very nice house, you ended up with $9,500 but paid no interest, the $500 being the bank's cost of servicing the loan. If you were buying a house you had to have at least $2,000 of your own. The bank was taking little risk because if you failed to repay the loan the ownership of the asset reverted to the bank and they could recoup their loan from another buyer.

Somewhere in the Bible it says neither a lender nor a borrower be. Unfortunately, since most of the church going folk don't even read many portions of the Bible or the many who have never even gone to church, their concept of economics comes from the Progressive element who follow an entirely different system. You are obviously one of them.

Melvin Udall
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Wow; we are obviously not in

Wow; we are obviously not in your "class" when it comes to brilliance about everyday things.

I'm not sure how we manage to get by....

BTW; will you loan me say......$250,000...for 20 years, for a fee of $10,000?

Toolsmith
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Oh, I want in on that loan...

Oh, I want in on that loan... what a deal! I can re-lend it and make a fortune!

Oh, THAT is what the banks are doing... zero interest to the them, 21% to the victims... er, borrowers.

pmconusa
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I cannot loan you any money

I cannot loan you any money because I don't have any surplus, what I have salted away is saved to provide me the life style to which I have become accustomed therefore there is no surplus. At least for the next 10 or 15 years or so I have even saved enough to cover the continuing devaluation of the dollar resulting from the economic system we have adopted. After that I plan on holding up a bank, confessing to the crime and letting the government take care of me for any life I might have left. When I can no longer move about and perhaps even feed my self, I will be unable to exercise my freedom so I might as well be in jail. A system that enables that to happen cannot help but fail.

Mel: I believe your pension comes from enterprises that work solely for the government plus Social Security. The government has continued to make these companies solvent by continually appropriating money for "defense" in the same amount or more each year. To say they actually compete is ludicrous. The pension money you receive comes not from a trust established by the company but, like Social Security, from current revenue. All you have to do to assure yourself of this is to look at their 20K or the balance sheet they must provide the government at tax time that details far better than the balance sheet you get to see when you own their stock. If they were to fold tomorrow your company pension would disappear. Not so with Social Security because the government can print money and has to the tune of over $20 trillion and growing.

Bruce: I believe your pension comes from your state of town government service. If I am wrong, you then fall in Mel's category. Again, you did not contribute the full amount of what you will get in return, the remainder being made up by today's tax payers. You paid in only 10% or less and the State was supposed to put in the remaining 90% of what you will collect when you retire. The problem is the state has not been coughing up its share and like the federal government using tax money for other purposes. Unlike the federal government the state cannot print money and its borrowing power is limited and intended originally to cover the States first years expenses until the revenue stream starts.

Detroit has gone bankrupt and actually declared itself so. You don't hear anything more about the situation but I suspect retired city employees and teachers are still collecting their pensions because they are guaranteed by the State and not the city. Puerto Rico has gone bankrupt and Puerto Ricans are fleeing or making do with less. I suspect the politicians in Washington have or will find a way to bail them out as well (keep them in Puerto Rico), after thousands have migrated to the States.

These situations are inherent in an economic system regulated by the government through the tax code, where the means of exchange accumulates and requires the able bodied to work in order to earn a living. I describe it in detail and its ultimate consequences which are now beginning to show even in the U. S.. You refuse to believe it because it does not effect you personally but it will inevitably come to more and more to the extent when it will occur can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. It is within the lifetime of your grandchildren.

My wife and I had no children but instead of just spending the money we earned we invested and saved it. When I retired, I was able to take the sum put aside by the company for a pension in a lump sum so I might invest it myself. The company also set aside money for a trust to provide both pension and health insurance independent of the company. That trust, according to the accounting I receive every year was over $1 billion and growing while the number of those actually participating is decreasing. Saudi Aramco could go bankrupt tomorrow and my benefits would not be affected until the trust runs out of money, You could say I was prudent and lucky and you would be right.

The government of Greece went bankrupt just a few years ago and were bailed out by the European Union. The governments of Brazil and Argentina went bank as have many others and were bailed out by the World Bank of which the U. S. is the largest contributor. Unfortunately they kept the same economic system and as a consequence their situation will be repeated again in the very near future. Why were they bailed out? The answer is so that their citizens would not migrate and become a bigger liability to those who enabled them to remain in Greece. When we go bankrupt, and we have already in our current system, we will have no one to bail us out.

I am currently condensing the book you refuse to or haven't read and I have it down to about 13 pages. I will post it here for all AMGers to read. The end is not pretty but inevitable unless we adopt a completely different economic system and it is still possible to extend humanity out almost indefinitely.

Melvin Udall
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As Reagan once said, "It's

As Reagan once said, "It's not what you don't know; it's what you know that is wrong."

Thanks for reminding me of that. Your cock-surity in your omniscience is one of the most "amusing" facets of your bloviations.

Toolsmith
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‘It isn't so much that

‘It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so.’
— Ronald Reagan

Melvin Udall
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Gee....128 page book

Gee....128 page book condensed down to 13.

Guess that 900 word post above could be condensed to 90....

pmconusa
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You still have not told me

You still have not told me what about my bloviating is wrong. You are so obsessed with your Progressive mindset that I'll bet if I said two plus two is four you would say it is wrong.

Melvin Udall
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Let's add Captain Losing It

Let's add Captain Losing It to the list.

Toolsmith
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"It ain't what you don't know

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.
It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
— Mark Twain

Lots of variants of that old saw... this one pointed out by a friend after I dug up the actual Reagan quote.

Pereant, inquit, qui ante nos nostra dixerunt.
"Confound those who have said our remarks before us."
-- Aelius Donatus

pmconusa
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Why don't you just answer my

Why don't you just answer my question?

Melvin Udall
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Why would I do that when you

Why would I do that when you constantly blow me and anyone else off, and instead, assert your superiority in every regard as a dodge?

On the rare occasion when you do try to respond, you utter unrelated nonsense to the original point.

Toolsmith
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Everything about bloviating

Everything about bloviating is wrong. Pointless verbiage designed to obfuscate the absence of any relevant response, designed solely to elevate the status of the author, is dishonest debate at its worst.

pmconusa
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So then who is the real

So then who is the real bloviator?

Toolsmith
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Oh, you are going to

Oh, you are going to enlighten us anyay... why should I even bother. I'd suggest staying concise and on-topic, but that never happens.

Melvin Udall
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Captain Clueless is here to

Captain Clueless is here to help......

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